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- June 2024
- Article
Real Growth in Space Manufacturing Output Substantially Exceeds Growth in the Overall Space Economy
By: Tina Highfill and Matthew Weinzierl
Accurately measuring real economic output in the space economy is made difficult by the rapid increase in capabilities and decrease in prices of launch and satellite technologies achieved over the past two decades. Nominal measures of output in space will tend to...
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Highfill, Tina, and Matthew Weinzierl. "Real Growth in Space Manufacturing Output Substantially Exceeds Growth in the Overall Space Economy." Acta Astronautica 219 (June 2024): 236–242.
- March 2024
- Case
Hippo: Weathering the Storm of the Home Insurance Crisis
By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan
Rick McCathron, CEO of Hippo, considered how the firm’s underwriting model could account for the effects of climate change. Along with providing smart home packages, targeting risk-friendly customers, and using data-driven pricing, the Insurtech used technologically...
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Keywords:
Fintech;
Underwriters;
Big Data;
Insurance Companies;
Global Warming;
Business Model Design;
Weather And Climate Change;
Weather Insurance;
Earnings;
Business Model;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Climate Change;
Environmental Sustainability;
Green Technology;
Technological Innovation;
Natural Environment;
Natural Disasters;
Weather;
Business Strategy;
Competitive Advantage;
Business Earnings;
Insurance;
Social Issues;
Insurance Industry;
United States;
California
- February 2024
- Article
Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials
By: Marcella Alsan, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein and Heidi L. Williams
This article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of Black patients in clinical
trials. We develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is
more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it...
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Keywords:
Representation;
Racial Disparity;
Health Testing and Trials;
Race;
Equality and Inequality;
Innovation and Invention;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Alsan, Marcella, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein, and Heidi L. Williams. "Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 1 (February 2024): 575–635.
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Impact of Unionization on Consumer Perceptions of Service Quality: Evidence from Starbucks
By: Isamar Troncoso, Minkyung Kim, Ishita Chakraborty and SooHyun Kim
The US has seen a rise in union movements, but their effects on service industry marketing outcomes like customer satisfaction and perceptions of service quality remain understudied. In this paper, we empirically study the impact on customer satisfaction and...
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Keywords:
Labor Unions;
Customer Satisfaction;
Perception;
Public Opinion;
Employees;
Food and Beverage Industry
Troncoso, Isamar, Minkyung Kim, Ishita Chakraborty, and SooHyun Kim. "The Impact of Unionization on Consumer Perceptions of Service Quality: Evidence from Starbucks." Working Paper, 2023.
- November 2023
- Article
Open Source Software and Global Entrepreneurship
By: Nataliya Langburd Wright, Frank Nagle and Shane Greenstein
This is the first study to consider the relationship between open source software (OSS) and
entrepreneurship around the globe. This study measures whether country-level participation on
the GitHub OSS platform affects the founding of innovative ventures, and where it...
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Keywords:
Entrepreneurship;
Applications and Software;
Business Ventures;
Development Economics;
Innovation and Invention;
Global Range
Wright, Nataliya Langburd, Frank Nagle, and Shane Greenstein. "Open Source Software and Global Entrepreneurship." Art. 104846. Research Policy 52, no. 9 (November 2023).
- October 2023
- Teaching Note
Timnit Gebru: 'SILENCED No More' on AI Bias and The Harms of Large Language Models
By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 422-085. Dr. Timnit Gebru—a leading artificial intelligence (AI) computer scientist and co-lead of Google’s Ethical AI team—was messaging with one of her colleagues when she saw the words: “Did you resign?? Megan sent an email saying that...
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Are Hospital Quality Indicators Causal?
By: Amitabh Chandra, Maurice Dalton and Douglas O. Staiger
Hospitals play a key role in patient outcomes and spending, but efforts to improve their quality are hindered because we do not know whether hospital quality indicators are causal or biased. We evaluate the validity of commonly used quality indicators, such as...
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Keywords:
Quality;
Health Care and Treatment;
Measurement and Metrics;
Outcome or Result;
Health Industry
Chandra, Amitabh, Maurice Dalton, and Douglas O. Staiger. "Are Hospital Quality Indicators Causal?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31789, October 2023.
- October 2023
- Article
Laboratory Safety and Research Productivity
By: Alberto Galasso, Hong Luo and Brooklynn Zhu
Are laboratory safety practices a tax on scientific productivity? We examine this question by exploiting the substantial increase in safety regulations at the University of California following the shocking accidental death of a research assistant in 2008....
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Keywords:
Economics Of Science;
Risk Perception;
Safety Regulations;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Working Conditions;
Safety;
Performance Productivity
Galasso, Alberto, Hong Luo, and Brooklynn Zhu. "Laboratory Safety and Research Productivity." Art. 104827. Research Policy 52, no. 8 (October 2023).
- 2023
- Working Paper
Targeting, Personalization, and Engagement in an Agricultural Advisory Service
By: Susan Athey, Shawn Cole, Shanjukta Nath and Jessica Zhu
ICT is increasingly used to deliver customized information in developing countries. We
examine whether individually targeting the timing of automated voice calls meaningfully
increases engagement in an agricultural advisory service. We define, estimate, and...
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Keywords:
Developing Countries and Economies;
Knowledge Dissemination;
Customization and Personalization;
Performance Effectiveness
Athey, Susan, Shawn Cole, Shanjukta Nath, and Jessica Zhu. "Targeting, Personalization, and Engagement in an Agricultural Advisory Service." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-006, August 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Imperfect Intermediation of Money-Like Assets
By: Jonathan Wallen and Jeremy C. Stein
We study supply-and-demand effects in the U.S. Treasury bill market by comparing the returns on T-bills to the administered policy rate on the Federal Reserve’s reverse repurchase (RRP) facility. In spite of the arguably more money-like properties of an investment in...
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Wallen, Jonathan, and Jeremy C. Stein. "The Imperfect Intermediation of Money-Like Assets." Working Paper, August 2023.
- July 2023
- Article
So, Who Likes You? Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment
By: Ravi Bapna, Edward McFowland III, Probal Mojumder, Jui Ramaprasad and Akhmed Umyarov
With one-third of marriages in the United States beginning online, online dating platforms have become important curators of the modern social fabric. Prior work on online dating has elicited two critical frictions in the heterosexual dating market. Women, governed by...
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Keywords:
Online Dating;
Internet and the Web;
Analytics and Data Science;
Gender;
Emotions;
Social and Collaborative Networks
Bapna, Ravi, Edward McFowland III, Probal Mojumder, Jui Ramaprasad, and Akhmed Umyarov. "So, Who Likes You? Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment." Management Science 69, no. 7 (July 2023): 3939–3957.
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Complexity of Economic Decisions
By: Xavier Gabaix and Thomas Graeber
We propose a theory of the complexity of economic decisions. Leveraging a macroeconomic framework of production functions, we conceptualize the mind as a cognitive economy, where a task’s complexity is determined by its composition of cognitive operations. Complexity...
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Gabaix, Xavier, and Thomas Graeber. "The Complexity of Economic Decisions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-049, February 2024.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act
By: Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini and Cecilia Testa
The 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) paved the road to Black empowerment. How did
southern whites respond? Leveraging newly digitized data on county-level voter registration
rates by race between 1956 and 1980, and exploiting pre-determined variation
in exposure to the...
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Bernini, Andrea, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini, and Cecilia Testa. "Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-075, June 2023. (Revise and resubmit at the Journal of Political Economy. Also available on Vox EU and VoxDev. Featured on HBS Working Knowledge.)
- 2023
- Article
Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recourse
By: Martin Pawelczyk, Teresa Datta, Johannes van-den-Heuvel, Gjergji Kasneci and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning models are increasingly being employed to make consequential decisions in real-world settings, it becomes critical to ensure that individuals who are adversely impacted (e.g., loan denied) by the predictions of these models are provided with a means...
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Pawelczyk, Martin, Teresa Datta, Johannes van-den-Heuvel, Gjergji Kasneci, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recourse." Proceedings of the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) (2023).
- 2023
- Article
Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations.
By: Edward McFowland III and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi
Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, that is, with a node’s network partners being informative about the node’s attributes and therefore its...
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Keywords:
Causal Inference;
Homophily;
Social Networks;
Peer Influence;
Social and Collaborative Networks;
Power and Influence;
Mathematical Methods
McFowland III, Edward, and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi. "Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 707–718.
- April 2023
- Article
The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity
By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'...
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Keywords:
Real Exchange Rate;
Firm Level Data;
Innovation;
Productivity;
Exporting;
Importing;
Credit Constraints;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Innovation and Invention;
Performance Productivity
Alfaro, Laura, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger, and Yanping Liu. "The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity." Journal of the European Economic Association 21, no. 2 (April 2023): 637–689.
- March 2023 (Revised September 2023)
- Case
Patagonia: 'Earth Is Now Our Only Shareholder'
By: Brian Trelstad, Nien-hê Hsieh, Michael Norris and Susan Pinckney
In September 2022, Yvon Chouinard, the iconoclastic founder of outdoor apparel company Patagonia, announced a new ownership model for his company. Chouinard and his family had held complete control of the company's voting and non-voting stock since its founding 50...
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Keywords:
Trusts;
Business Ventures;
Business Organization;
Family Business;
Restructuring;
Change;
Disruption;
Transition;
Decision Making;
Ethics;
Values and Beliefs;
Finance;
Financial Management;
Governance;
Corporate Governance;
Investment Activism;
Leadership;
Labor;
Law;
Common Law;
Management;
Goals and Objectives;
Organizations;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Mission and Purpose;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Organizational Culture;
Ownership;
Ownership Type;
Family Ownership;
Private Ownership;
Social Enterprise;
Nonprofit Organizations;
Society;
Social Issues;
Wealth and Poverty;
Value;
Value Creation;
Apparel and Accessories Industry;
United States
Trelstad, Brian, Nien-hê Hsieh, Michael Norris, and Susan Pinckney. "Patagonia: 'Earth Is Now Our Only Shareholder'." Harvard Business School Case 323-057, March 2023. (Revised September 2023.)
- January–February 2023
- Article
Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions
By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas
We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Epidemics;
Analytics and Data Science;
Health Pandemics;
AI and Machine Learning;
Forecasting and Prediction
Li, Michael Lingzhi, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis, and Dimitris Bertsimas. "Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions." Operations Research 71, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 184–201.
- January 23, 2023
- Article
Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines
By: Susan Athey, Kristen Grabarz, Michael Luca and Nils Wernerfelt
Public health organizations increasingly use social media advertising campaigns in pursuit of public health goals. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of about $40 million of social media advertisements that were run and experimentally tested on Facebook and...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Public Health;
Vaccines;
Social Media;
Advertising;
Power and Influence;
Health Care and Treatment
Athey, Susan, Kristen Grabarz, Michael Luca, and Nils Wernerfelt. "Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines." e2208110120. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120, no. 5 (January 23, 2023).
- January 2023 (Revised April 2024)
- Case
First to Fight? Culture, Tradition, and the United States Marine Corps (USMC)
By: Ranjay Gulati, Akhil Iyer and Joel Malkin
Over a history of more than 240 years, the United States Marine Corps has forged a distinct culture and institutional identity centered on its “warrior ethos.” In the wars of American history, Marines fought with uncommon valor, rising to international prominence for...
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Keywords:
Change Management;
Transformation;
Talent and Talent Management;
Government Administration;
Management Practices and Processes;
Management Systems;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Organizational Culture;
Performance Effectiveness;
United States
Gulati, Ranjay, Akhil Iyer, and Joel Malkin. "First to Fight? Culture, Tradition, and the United States Marine Corps (USMC)." Harvard Business School Case 423-051, January 2023. (Revised April 2024.)